Climate tipping points research to be presented for prestigious international lecture

One of the world’s leading scientific bodies has honoured a University of Leicester mathematician and climate expert with the opportunity to present his work on an international stage.

Professor Valerio Lucarini from the School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences has been awarded the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Jacob Bjerknes Lecture, which he will deliver on Tuesday 8 December at the annual AGU meeting held in San Francisco from 7-11 December 2026.

Professor Lucarini’s lecture, entitled ‘Predicting, Detecting, and Attributing Change and Criticality in Climate Across Multiple Scales’, will discuss how recent development in applied mathematics and theoretical physics has allowed us to radically advance our ability to predict climate change and to attribute observed climate change to acting forcings. 

It has provided new tools - blending analytical results, such as equations, and data-driven methods - for anticipating and explaining climatic tipping points.  All of this can be seen as a step forward with respect to, and inspired by, the scientific vision on climate science proposed by 2021 Physics Nobel Prize recipient Klaus Hasselmann, also known as the Hasselmann programme. 

Professor Valerio Lucarini, of the School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, said: “My strong tenet is that in order to advance our ability to understand and predict the climate system across scales, we need to complement the rapidly growing modelling capabilities and Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning tools with fundamental theoretical advances coming from mathematics and physics. These constitute - together with observations - key complementary scientific pillars.

“It is a great honour to have been chosen to deliver the Bjerknes Honorary Lecture, following the path of many great protagonists of atmospheric and climate sciences. Receiving this honour this year has a special meaning because my latest PhD student, Dr Reyk Börner, currently a postdoctoral fellow at the Utrecht University, is receiving the Turcotte award for the best PhD thesis in the section of Nonlinear Geophysics.”

AGU, the world's largest Earth and space science association, celebrates individuals and teams through its annual Honors and Recognition program for their accomplishments in research, education, science communication, and outreach. These honorees have transformed our understanding of the world, impacted our everyday lives, improved our communities and contributed to solutions for a sustainable future.

Professor Lucarini joins a distinguished group of scientists, leaders and communicators recognized by AGU for advancing science. Each honoree reflects AGU's vision for a thriving, sustainable and equitable future supported by scientific discovery, innovation and action.

Honorees will be recognized at AGU’s 2026 Annual Meeting, AGU26, which will convene more than 25,000 attendees from over 100 countries in San Francisco, CA, and online everywhere 7-11 December 2026.