Walking pace found to strongly predict risk of death

A new analysis of more than 400,000 UK adults has found that easy to collect measures of physical health, particularly how fast someone walks, can significantly improve predictions of mortality risk. 

This finding was especially strong for people already living with long-term health conditions.

The study was carried out by a team of researchers at the University of Leicester with funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Leicester Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), the MRC iCASE programme and Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (RGA). It has now been published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings.

Data from 407,569 UK Biobank participants was analysed to determine whether five basic physical measures could enhance or even replace traditional clinical risk predictors such as blood pressure and cholesterol when estimating the likelihood of premature death. The measures were: walking pace, handgrip strength, resting heart rate, sleep duration and leisure time physical activity.

Yuhe Wang, who is currently working towards a PhD at the University of Leicester, said: “Risk prediction models are widely used within clinical practice, public health and the insurance sector. From a clinical perspective, risk scores help clinicians make better personalised decision making, and in public health, risk scores help identify sections of the population that could benefit from preventive interventions.

“Life insurance companies also use prediction models to classify individuals according to their risk of death. Traditionally their risk prediction models include demographic factors such as sex, age and previous history of chronic disease.

 

Professor of Physical Activity, Sedentary Behaviour and Health at the University of Leicester, Tom Yates, said: “Of the physical measures studied, our analysis found that walking pace was the strongest single predictor of death. In people with existing health conditions, replacing blood pressure and cholesterol measurements with self-reported walking pace improved the model’s ability to predict mortality, meaning people were reclassified into a more appropriate risk category.  

“When all five physical measures were combined, mortality prediction improved even further in groups with pre-existing health conditions.

“These findings suggest that incorporating straightforward physical behaviour and fitness measures can offer a quick and cost effective way to identify people at higher risk of death, which could support more targeted preventive healthcare.”

Richard Russell, Vice President, Biometric Research, RGA said: “This research demonstrates that simple, accessible measures like walking pace and resting heart rate can help insurers better assess risk while also empowering consumers to adopt behaviours that support longer, healthier lives.”

Professor Marian Knight, Scientific Director for NIHR Infrastructure, said: “For 20 years, NIHR infrastructure has been committed to supporting research that provides practical solutions for public health.

“By showing that a measure as simple as walking pace can be a powerful predictor of health outcomes, this work highlights how we can use accessible data to improve risk assessment and help people live longer, healthier lives.”

The NIHR Leicester BRC is part of the NIHR and hosted by the University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust in partnership with the University of Leicester, Loughborough University and University Hospitals of Northamptonshire NHS Group.