Peace, Security and Governance

The first human-made device to enter Space was the V2 ballistic missile developed by Nazi Germany in 1942, and in 1957 the launch of the Sputnik satellite marked the beginning of the 'Space Age'. Both developments were intrinsically linked with warfare and security, and both would spawn numerous different weapons and support systems for military operations. Indeed, since this time, hundreds of satellites have gone into various orbits fulfilling numerous functions that have aided both military and peaceful operations on Earth.

There have been some efforts to regulate these uses of Space, most notably the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which bans the stationing of weapons of mass destruction in outer Space, prohibits military activities on celestial bodies, and details legally binding rules governing the peaceful exploration and use of Space. But the military and security challenges posed in and through Space are rapidly outgrowing the governance frameworks deigned to minimise the risks that the rapid militarisation (and perhaps weaponisation) of Space will involve.

• Space as a domain is growing in importance for global security. All major nations rely on assets deployed in Space for military operations, communications, war fighting and intelligence gathering. The possibility that weapons might be deployed in Space is becoming increasingly likely, with evermore sophisticated rendezvous and proximity operations being pursued and concerns returning about anti-satellite weapons and possible Electromagnetic Pulse attacks in Low Earth Orbit that would 'fry' satellites.
• Forty years after Ronald Reagan’s 'Star Wars' plan, a key component of the security challenges in Space will be the impact of 'emerging and disruptive technologies', such as Artificial Intelligence and autonomous platforms, 'cyber' attacks, and Space-based directed energy and laser weapons. We are only just beginning to appreciate how transformational this might be for global security and stability.
• An associated challenge is the growing demand for nuclear energy and other means of non-traditional propulsion for Space exploration. This is likely to create similar problems as the expansion of nuclear power on Earth, specifically how this can be made safe, but also preventing possible nuclear weapons proliferation.
• These developments naturally lead to important questions about how the security dynamics in space might be regulated – is there a role for traditional arms control, might other types of agreement, conventions or norms be required? What role for international bodies such as the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs? How viable are non-binding guidance like the Artemis Accords? Do key principles such as those contained in Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of State in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space continue to make sense? How do powerful non-state actors fit into this?
• This strand ultimately explores whether the societal benefits of further advancements in Space can be equitably and peacefully shared. It also examines the compatibility of state-driven developments and ambitions with the broader universal interest in using space for peaceful purposes.

This strand will adopt a mixture of methods, pairing traditional qualitative techniques such as elite interviews, doctrinal research, policy analysis, oral histories and archival work, with data-generating conflict simulations, quantitative modelling and AI-enabled content analysis.