University of Leicester expert joins authors of United Nations climate change report
A Leicester mathematician and expert in climate tipping points will co-author an important report for the United Nations.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has appointed 664 experts from 111 countries to participate in the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) as Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors and Review Editors.
These experts were nominated by governments and IPCC observer organisations and selected by the IPCC Bureau from a global pool of 3,771 nominees.
Professor Valerio Lucarini from the University of Leicester School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences is one of the Lead Authors of Chapter 8 "Abrupt changes, low-likelihood high impact events and critical thresholds, including tipping points, in the Earth system” of the Working Group 1 (Physical basis) report of the IPCC’s 7th Assessment Report. Together with the other 12 Lead Authors, the three Review Editors, and the three Coordinating Lead Authors, he will work on a synthesis of the state of the art of what is known on abrupt climate transitions, especially tipping points.
Professor Lucarini has established himself as a world leader in mathematical geophysics, and specifically, in the area of mathematics of climate. His work has advanced our fundamental understanding of the climate system through the creative and rigorous use of statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, dynamical systems theory, and probability theory.
Professor Lucarini said: “It is a great opportunity to distil the most relevant science and clarify this rapidly evolving and extremely relevant scientific research area, which cuts across climate science, Earth and environmental science, applied mathematics, numerical modelling, and physics, with huge implications in terms of climate change adaptation and mitigation.
“It is great honour to contribute to the chapter of the IPCC working group 1 devoted to abrupt climate change and Earth’s tipping points. It is the very first time that such important features of the present and past climate receive such a dedicated space in the IPCC reports and I feel that this is a great opportunity to make a meaningful contribution to climate science and provide information of great relevance for stakeholders and policy makers. I am very excited for the opportunity to work together with distinguished international colleagues and hopeful to make a contribution to the common good. At Leicester we are building an extremely strong profile in the area of climatic and ecological tipping points, and I am sure that the interaction with the IPCC will lead to further opportunities for international cooperation and outstanding research activities."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide political leaders with periodic scientific assessments concerning climate change, its implications and risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation strategies. In the same year the UN General Assembly endorsed the action by the WMO and UNEP in jointly establishing the IPCC. It has 195 member states.
Thousands of people from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC. For the assessment reports, scientists and experts volunteer their time as IPCC authors to assess the thousands of scientific papers published each year to provide a comprehensive summary of what is known about the drivers of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and how adaptation and mitigation can reduce those risks.
The appointed authors will now begin their work on assessing relevant literature and preparing drafts of their respective reports on the basis of the outlines of the Working Group contributions to the AR7, agreed upon by the Panel at its 62nd session in Hangzhou, China, in February 2025. The First Lead Author meeting is scheduled for early December.
The three IPCC Working Group reports are expected to start appearing in mid-2028, while the Synthesis Report that will conclude the entire cycle will be approved by late 2029, completing the seventh assessment cycle.
“The appointment of the author teams means that work on the Seventh Assessment Report on the state of climate science can now begin. The author teams, drawn from several thousand excellent nominations, ensure outstanding expertise across a range of disciplines. We are proud that the new author teams reflect increased diversity, in terms of both gender balance and greater representation from developing countries and economies in transition”, said IPCC Chair Jim Skea.