Dr John Fry

A dedicated Higher Education professional committed to excellent teaching and research. I have had some of my best-ever student feedback in recent years and was nominated for two Student Union teaching awards in 2026. I have also recently published elite level journal papers alongside dissertation students and alongside industrial collaborators. A trained mathematician I have variously lectured across finance, operations research and mathematics and statistics. I have an internationally excellent research record with a number of publications in 3* and 4* journals and over 4000 Google Scholar citations. I am the co-author of two student textbooks: Regression (published with Nick Bingham in 2010) and Quantitative Methods in Finance using R (published with Matt Burke in 2022). I am best known for my work in finance. My work forms the prototype model for bubbles in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets and I won an international best-paper prize in 2019. Having worked in UK business schools over a number of years I have also undertaken a wide variety of applied econometric and economic modelling work. I have also worked on a range of behavioural problems related to (but not strictly) finance including modelling emergency evacuations and modelling customer satisfaction scores. Another strand of my research lies in innovative applications of options-pricing models. Applications include political forecasting, financial forecasting and the evaluation of equity-release mortgages. My recent work also includes a number of sports applications; largely driven by student dissertation work. Recent publications variously cover football, rugby union, Formula 1, chess and curling.

Journal articles

[44] Fry, J., Fanzon, S., Autsin, M. and Brighton, T. (2026). Benchmarking Formula 1 results using a normal model. Applied Economics Letters (forthcoming) [ABS list 1*] [43] Fry, J., Bennett, S. and Hastings, T. (2025) An options pricing approach to forecasting the US election. Economics Letters 256 112632 [ABS list 3*] [42] Fry, J. (2025) Projecting stock market impacts of climate change via rational bubble models. Risk Analysis 45 3079-3089 [ABS list 4*]

[41] Fry, J. and Binner, J. (2025). Quantifying speculative-bubble effects in major European soccer leagues. Economics Letters 248 112208 [ABS list 3*] [40] Fry, J., Hastings, T. and Binner, J. (2025) An options-pricing approach to predicting the French presidential election. Journal of the Operational Research Society 76 167-179 [ABS list 3*]

[39] Fry, J. and Brint, A. (2025) Customer satisfaction: new models to estimate the number of fake reviews. Tourism Management 106 105030 [ABS list 4*]

[38] Fry, J., Austin, M. and Fanzon, S. (2025). Elementary econometric and strategic analysis of curling matches. Managerial Finance 51 1206-1216 [ABS list 1*]

[37] Fry, J., Brighton, T. and Fanzon, S. (2024) Faster identification of faster Formula 1 drivers via time-rank duality. Economics Letters 237 111671 [ABS list 3*]

[36] Fry, J. (2024) Re-visiting Student Evaluation of Teaching during the pandemic. Applied Economics Letters 31 1259-1263 [ABS list 1*]

[35] Fry, J. and Ibiloye, O. (2023) Towards a taxonomy for crypto assets. Cogent Economics and Finance 11 2207266 [ABS list 1*]

[34] Burke, M., Fry, J., Kemp, S. and Woodhouse, D. (2022) Attention to authority: The behavioural finance of Covid-19. Finance Research Letters 49 103081 [ABS list 2*]

[33] Pekar, V., Binner, J., Najafi, H., Rickard, C., Swanson, R. and Fry, J. (2022). Voting intentions on social media and political opinion polls. Government Information Quarterly 39 101658 [ABS list 3*]

[32] Fry, J., Serbera, J-P. and Wilson, R. (2021). Managing performance expectations in association football. Journal of Business Research 135 445-453 [ABS list 3*]

[31] Fry, J., Griguta, V-M., Gerber, L., Petty-Slater, H. and Crockett, K. (2021). Modelling corporate bank accounts. Economics Letters 205 109924 [ABS list 3*]

[30] Griguta, V-M., Gerber, L., Petty-Slater, H., Crockett, K. and Fry, J. (2021). Automated data processing of bank statements for cash balance forecasting. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems 284 49-64.

[29] Brint, A. and Fry, J. (2021) Regional bias when benchmarking services using customer satisfaction scores. Total Quality Management and Business Excellence 32 344-358. [ABS list 2*]

[28] Fry, J., Smart, O., Serbera, J-P. and Klar, B. (2021) A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 17 67-75.

[27] Fry, J. and Burke, M. (2020) An options pricing approach to election prediction. Quantitative Finance 20 1583-1589 [ABS list 3*]

[26] Fry, J. M. and Serbera, J. P. (2020) Quantifying the sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchain. Journal of Enterprise Information Management 33 1379-1394 [ABS list 2*]

[25] Dowd, K., Blake, D., Buckner, D. and Fry, J. (2019) The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages. Economics Letters 184 108669 [ABS list 3*]

[24] Fry, J. (2019) Stochastic drawdowns. Quantitative Finance 19 899-900 [ABS list 3*]

[23] Abdou, H., Mitra, S., Fry, J. and El Amer, M. (2019) Would two-stage scoring models alleviate bank exposure to bad debt? Expert Systems with Applications 128 1-13 [ABS list 1*]

[22] Burke, M. and Fry, J. M. (2019) How easy is it to understand consumer finance? Economics Letters 177 1-4. [ABS list 3*]

[21] Serbera, J-P. and Fry, J. (2019) Takeover deterrents and Cross Partial Ownerships: the case of golden shares. Managerial and Decision Economics 40 243-250 [ABS list 2*]

[20] Fry, J. (2018) Booms, busts and heavy-tails: the story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets? Economics Letters 171 225-229. [ABS list 3*]

[19] El Montasser, G., Naoui, K. and Fry, J. (2018) Speculative bubbles or explosive fundamentals in stock prices? New evidence from SADF and GSADF tests. Journal of Statistics and Management Systems 21 93-106.

[18] Fry, J. and Brint, A. (2017) Bubbles, blind-spots and Brexit. Risks 5 37.

[17] Fry, J. and Cheah, E-T. (2016) Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets. International Review of Financial Analysis 47 343-352. [ABS list 3*, awarded the Tom Fetherstone best paper prize in 2019]

[16] Shaban, M., Duygun, M. and Fry, J. (2016) SME's lending and Islamic finance. Is it a ``win-win" situation? Economic Modelling 55 1-5 [ABS list 2*]

[15] El Montasser, G., Fry, J. and Apergis, N. (2016) Explosive bubbles in the US-China exchange rate? Evidence from right-tailed unit root tests. China Economic Journal 9 34-46 [ABS list 1*]

[14] Fry, J. and Binner, J. (2016) Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using Social Media. European Journal of Operational Research 249 1014-1023. [ABS 4*]

[13] Fry, J. M. (2015a) Book reviews. Market Technician: The Journal of the STA 79 8-8.

[12] Cheah, E-T. and Fry, J. M. (2015) Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin. Economics Letters 130 32-36 [ABS list 3*]

[11] Fry, J. M. (2015b) Book reviews. Market Technician: The Journal of the STA 78 6-7.

[10] Fry, J. M. (2015c) Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy. Cogent Economics and Finance 3 1002152 [ABS list 1*]

[9] Fry, J. M. (2014) Mathematical modelling, technical analysis and econophysics. Market Technician: The Journal of the STA 77 5-8.

[8] Fry, J. (2014) Multivariate bubbles and antibubbles. European Physical Journal B 87 174 [Australian Journal List A]

[7] Fry, J. (2014) Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies. European Physical Journal B 87 1 [Australian Journal List A]

[6] Fry, J. (2012) Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems. European Physical Journal B 85 405 [Australian Journal List A].

[5] Masood, O. and Fry, J. M. (2012) Risk management and Basel-Accord-implementation in Pakistan. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance 20 293-306 [ABS list 1*]

[4] Fry, J. M. (2011) Gaussian and non-Gaussian models for financial bubbles via econophysics. Hyperion International Journal of Econophysics and New Economy 4 7-22.

[3] Walid, C., Chaker, A., Masood, O. and Fry, J. (2011) Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach. Emerging Markets Review 12 272-292 [ABS list 2*]

[2] Fry, J. M. (2010a) Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. Journal of Applied Research in Finance 2 131-137.

[1] Bingham, N. H., Fry, J. M. and Kiesel, R. (2010) Multivariate elliptic processes. Statistica Neerlandica 64 352-366 [Australian Journal List B]

Books

[3] Fry, J. M. and Burke, M. (2022) Quantitative methods in finance using R. Open University Press.

[2] Bingham, N, H, and Fry, J. M. (2010) Regression: Linear models in statistics. Springer Undergraduate Mathematics Series, Springer London Dordtrecht Heidelberg New York.

[1] Fry, J. M. (2010b) Modelling bubbles and crashes in economics: With an application to English house prices. VDM Publishing, Saarbrucken.

Book Chapters

[1] Fry, J., Galla, T., and Binner, J. (2014) Quantitative decision-making for the next generation of smarter evacuations. In Preston, J., Binner, J., Branicki, L., Galla, T., and Jones, N (eds.) (2014) City evacuations: An interdisciplinary approach. Springer pp 63-88.

Nominated for two student choice Teaching Awards (University of Hull, 2026)

Awarded the 2019 Tom Fetherstone prize (for the best paper published in International Review of Financial Analysis in 2016)

Awarded the Joe Gani prize in 2004 for best overall MSc performance

Awarded the Reverend Gilbert Robinson prize in 2002 for outstanding examination performance (BSc)

PGCHE Teaching Qualification (Nottingham Trent University, 2012)

PhD in Mathematical Finance (University of Sheffield, 2008)

MSc in Statistics (University of Sheffield, 2004)

BSc in Mathematics and Statistics (University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 2002)