Blog: New Political Order? The strange demise of red and blue

In this expert blog, Paul Baines, Professor of Political Marketing, explains what’s happened to the Tories and Labour - and how they can turn their fortunes around.

With the two main parties’ conferences taking place, and seeing Reform surging in the opinion polls, we ask ourselves a question: is the Blue and Red stranglehold on British politics over?

For a century or more, and after the Liberals crashed and burned in the early 20th century, British politics was dominated by two giant political brands: the Conservative & Unionist Party and the Labour Party. Where one succeeded, the other suffered.

A general election vote in England has been a binary choice. In the last century, the Conservatives led for 64 years, and the Labour Party led for 33 years. This tug-of-war between Red and Blue defined British politics. Clement Atlee’s post-war Labour government brought us the welfare state and Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government in the 1980s brought us radical free-market reforms. Even during brief periods of minority government or coalition, the two main parties held the most seats and votes, relegating other parties to the fringes.

New parties have tried to break through to no avail. Witness the SDP in the 1980s, the Referendum Party and UKIP in the 1990s, the short-lived Jury Team in the 2000s, and the Brexit Party in the 2010s. All fell by the wayside. Then in 2021, Reform was born, from the embers of the Brexit Party.

Since then, a seismic shift in voter attitudes has been occurring. In the 2024 general election, Labour secured a historic majority of seats, but their popular vote share was a paltry 33.7%, the lowest any majority government has ever recorded. Meanwhile, the Tories suffered their worst result since 1832, winning just 23.7% of the vote. The combined vote was only 57.4%. This contrasts with a two-party vote share in the previous last 5 British general elections of 68.8% (2005), 65.1% (2010), 67.3% (2015), 82.4% (2017) and 75.8% (2019).

Enter stage left, Reform’s charismatic, mercurial leader, Nigel Farage. Once a fringe protest party, according to recent opinion polls, Reform is set to become the largest party in the next British general election, required by August 2029. Its success challenges Labour but particularly the Conservatives. Farage is  tapping the zeitgeist of public discontent: capitalising on immigration, the cost of living, and the sense of an out-of-touch political establishment. His shtick is grievance politics and it’s working. How, then, might the two main parties respond?

Reform’s challenge to the Conservative Party is existential. It appeals to disillusioned traditional Tory voters who believe their party has abandoned its principles on border control and cultural identity, precipitating defections from the likes of Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Nadine Dorries. Countering Reform means regaining the Brexiteers that voted for Boris Johnson in 2019. A game plan for the Conservatives would see them reclaiming their authority on Britain’s place in the world – including a bold new vision for the country both domestically, particularly on the economy, and in its foreign policy. This would need to be followed by a shift in tone, a heartfelt apology for past wrongs, and reclamation of their traditional advantage on economic liberalism and national security.

It won’t be easy because Farage freely admits he and his party have no government experience. That hasn’t stopped him from promising to stop the boats, right the economy, end NHS waiting lists, abolish inheritance tax, lower business taxes, and lower energy bills. People might actually vote for it, despite not believing the promise, on the basis of the nihilistic thinking: ‘what’s the worst Reform could do?’

Labour, despite its recent electoral success, with one of the largest majorities in British political history, is not immune to the threat either. Reform is making inroads into traditional Labour heartlands, particularly among working-class voters feeling left behind by the political system. And the party is haemorrhaging support to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens too.  Countering this requires Labour to demonstrate that it is the party of economic change and offers opportunity for the majority. This is a tall order as it has seriously lost its sparkle since the election in 2024. It must offer more concrete solutions to the cost-of-living crisis and a compelling narrative for national renewal that resonates with those feeling ignored and disrespected. Although tempting, they cannot rely on the Conservatives' vote-share collapse; regaining the trust of voters tempted by the populist appeal of Reform is going to be fundamental. Time is still on their side – a lot can happen in the 4 years till the next election has to be called.

Whatever happens, the ‘big two’ era is over. British politics has entered a new, multi-party landscape, beyond left and right, where the traditional giants can no longer take their dominance for granted. Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s rise is not an aberration, but a symptom of a profound shift in public sentiment, that the big two are yet to hear. To survive, both Labour and the Conservatives must undergo a process of radical reinvention, shifting beyond their historical comfort zones to offer a genuine and compelling vision for a country crying out for real change. Failure to do so means long-term decline for the Conservatives and short-lived electoral success for Labour.