Blog: New Political Order? The strange demise of red and blue

In this expert blog, Paul Baines, Professor of Political Marketing, explains what’s happened to the Tories and Labour - and how they can turn their fortunes around.

For a century and more, British politics has been a story of two political giants: the Conservative and Labour Parties. After the Liberal Party crashed and burned in the early 20th century, Red and Blue dominated the electoral landscape. A strategic interdependence operated in elections: when one succeeded, the other suffered. A general election vote in England was largely a binary choice. But looking at the opinion polls now, we see the dupoly’s fortunes waning;  potentially in their death throes. What happened?

Over the last 100 years, the Conservative Party led in power for two-thirds of the time (64 years), and the Labour Party for one-third (33 years). This century-long tug-of-war defined British political life, bringing us the post-war welfare state by Clement Attlee's Labour government and the radical free-market reforms of the 1980s in Margaret Thatcher's. Even during the brief periods of minority government or coalition, the two main parties held the the most seats and votes, with other parties relegated to the fringes. New parties trying to break in, including the Social Democratic Party in the 1980s, the Referendum Party and UKIP in the 1990s, the Jury Team in the 2000s, and the Brexit Party in the 2010s all fell by the wayside. Until in 2021, the Brexit Party was re-registered as Reform UK.

Since then, a seismic shift in voter attitudes has taken place. While the big two could previously command a combined vote share of around 90%, this figure has recently plummeted. At the 2024 general election, although Labour secured a historic majority of seats, their popular vote share was a paltry 33.7%, the lowest any majority government has ever achieved on record. The Conservatives suffered their worst result since 1832, winning just 23.7% of the vote. Combined the vote for Red and Blue was only 57%. This contrasts with a two-party vote share of 68.8% in 2005, 65.1% in 2010, and 82.4% in 2017.

The key driver for this seismic shift, enter stage left, is Reform’s charismatic, but rather mercurial leader, Nigel Farage. Once a fringe protest party, according to recent opinion polls, Reform is on track to become the largest party in the next British general election with a whopping . Its success challenges Labour but particularly the Conservatives. Farage has successfully tapped the zeitgeist of British public discontent: capitalising on immigration, the high cost of living, and a sense that the political establishment has failed ordinary people. His shtick is grievance politics; it’s all us versus them, a focus on emotion and the failures of the current political classes.

Reform’s challenge to the Conservative Party is existential. Appealing directly to disillusioned traditional Tory voters and politicians who feel their party has abandoned its principles on border control and cultural identity. This means trying to regain the brexiteers that voted for Boris Johnson in 2019. To counter this, the Conservatives need to reclaim their authority on Britain’s place in the world. This requires a coherent, authentic, bold vision for the country both domestically and in its foreign policy. It would need a shift in tone too, and reclamation of their traditional advantage on economic responsibility and national security. It won’t be easy because Farage freely admits he and his party have no government experience. That hasn’t stopped him from promising to stop the boats, right the economy, end NHS waiting lists, abolish inheritance tax, lower business taxes, and lower energy bills. People might actually vote for it, despite not being the promise, on the basis of the nihilistic thinking of ‘what’s the worst that they could do?’

Labour, despite its recent electoral success with one of the largest majorities in British political history, is not immune to the threat either. Reform is making inroads into traditional Labour heartlands, particularly among working-class voters feeling left behind by the political system. And the party is haemorrhaging support to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens too.  Countering this requires Labour to demonstrate that it is the party of economic change and opportunity for the majority. This is going to be a tall order as it has seriously lost its sparkle since election in 2024. It must offer more concrete solutions to the cost-of-living crisis and a compelling narrative for national renewal that resonates with those feeling ignored and disrespected. Although tempting, they cannot rely on the Conservatives' vote-share collapse; regaining the trust of voters tempted by the populist appeal of Reform is going to be fundamentals. Time is still on their side – a lot can happen in the 4 years till the next election has to be called.

Whatever happens, the ‘big two’ era is over. British politics has entered a new, multi-party landscape, beyond left and right, where the traditional giants can no longer take their dominance for granted. Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s rise is not an aberration, but a symptom of a profound shift in public sentiment, that the big two are still to hear. To survive, both Labour and the Conservatives must now undergo a process of radical reinvention, moving beyond their historical comfort zones to offer a genuine and compelling vision for a country crying out for real change. Failure to do so could mean long-term decline for the Conservatives and short-lived electoral success for Labour.