Professor Heiko Balzter shares hopes for COP29 and the path toward global climate action

The United Nations’ international climate summit returns this month.

Taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference runs from Monday 11 – Friday 22 November.

Professor Heiko Balzter, Director of the Institute for Environmental Futures, is attending the event on behalf of the University of Leicester and National Centre for Earth Observation.

What are your expectations for COP29? How do you think it will differ from previous ones in terms of progress on global climate action?

This year’s conference will be much smaller compared to COP28 in Dubai, which saw the largest number of attendees in the history of the climate conference. Despite this, I still hope we will see some significant progress in closing the emissions gap.

At the moment, worldwide, greenhouse gas emissions are too high to stay within the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C. Although I don’t think it is realistic for COP29 to get us back on track to meet this goal, coming as close as possible would be the next best thing.

A big question on the agenda for negotiators is whether enough international funds can be mobilised. The Loss and Damage Fund was established at the previous COP, but contributions remain limited. A lot more commitment is needed – around 1000 times more than what is currently available – meaning there will be a big push to mobilise both government and private contributions to these international funds.

Another big topic will be how regulatory frameworks can be put in place to unlock private finance. Investors need clarity on global policies, and we should avoid creating local carbon markets that are incompatible with each other. Ideally, we will see a global trading scheme for climate action.

Have you seen any positive change since COP28?

COP28 brought more attention to the global commitment to end deforestation made at COP 26, which aligns with my own area of research. It has been encouraging to see increasing interest in the issue, and the heightened focus is welcome, given that we have made insufficient progress so far.

Another positive change I’ve observed is that organisations are now asking how they can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, as opposed to asking why it is necessary. This shift is not simply a result from COP28, but it does reflect a broader move toward a more action-focused approach to limiting global temperature rise.

How does your research relate to the conference’s goals?

My research focuses on Earth observation applications that can help address the climate emergency. 

My technical expertise on satellite earth observation of global forests – measuring how much carbon is stored in forests and how much carbon they lose and gain – is a crucial function. I have developed a forest alert system from space, which has been adopted by the Government of Kenya and has led to significant successes, with statistics showing that illegal deforestation in one County on the Kenyan coast has come almost to a standstill.

I also co-lead the Land Use for Net Zero, Nature and People (LUNZ) Hub in the UK, where we are translating evidence from research into policy. We are working with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and with the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, on climate action policy development and implementation. 

How do you see academia collaborating with policymakers and practitioners during COP29?

The primary way for academics to get involved in COP is through participation in the Blue Zone, which is the restricted area for accredited participants. In addition to being the zone where official negotiation sessions take place, a series of side events and panels are hosted, allowing governments, organisations and academics to share knowledge, innovations, and policy solutions related to climate change.

In your opinion, what are the most critical climate policies that need to be addressed at this conference?

The need for increased green finance is high on the agenda for COP29, driven by two key global priorities:

Mitigation: this involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions by transforming systems across sectors like transport, energy and travel, which requires substantial financial investment to shift to more sustainable practices and technologies.

Adaptation: this refers to managing the unavoidable impacts of climate change, including extreme weather events like intense storms, heatwaves, droughts, crop failures, and flooding such as the disaster that just killed over 150 people in South-eastern Spain. These extreme events are becoming more frequent and more intense worldwide. The financial burden of adaptation is particularly heavy for low and middle-income countries, which often lack the resources to cope with these challenges despite contributing the least to global emissions.

Finally, what are your predictions for the state of global climate action by COP30? Are we on track to meet the targets set in the Paris Agreement, or is there more work to be done?

It is becoming increasingly apparent that we will not meet the 1.5C goal set in the Paris Agreement. However, we should still aim to stay as close to the 1.5C goal as possible. I argue that we should learn from this failure and step up international efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.7C or 1.8C above pre-industrial levels, depending on what is achievable.

My hope is that by COP30 we will commit to sufficient emission reductions worldwide to get us back on track towards a net zero future.