Leicester expert to attend Nobel Peace Prize Forum as nuclear war threat intensifies

An expert in global nuclear politics from the University of Leicester has raised concerns about the decline of world security amid tensions between the West and Russia – but has some words of optimism for the future.

The comments from Professor of International Politics, Andrew Futter, come ahead of his appearance at the Nobel Peace Prize Forum on Wednesday 11 December, which will discuss how to counter the threat of nuclear war.

Professor Futter will host the first of two panel discussions – about the current global nuclear threat – which will then be followed by an investigation into potential pathways to a de-escalate the situation.

“This year’s forum is to honour atomic bomb victims and survivors, but also to raise awareness that our nuclear world is getting more not less dangerous, and that much of the hope and optimism we had 10 or 15 years ago has vanished,” said Professor Futter.

The Leicester expert is a go-to interviewee for UK and international journalists trying to get a handle on the world’s nuclear threat, and Professor Futter has found he’s been very much in-demand with the press since Moscow and “the West” locked horns over Ukraine.

Professor Futter leads the European Research Council Third Nuclear Age project, which provides an insight into the dynamics driving the threat of nuclear conflict.

He said: “We’ve moved into a new nuclear era: the Third Nuclear Age. At the heart of this era is a mixture of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, rapid technological change in weapons systems, and a breakdown of the norms of global nuclear governance.

“We have nuclear modernisation happening, competitive rivalries between nuclear-armed states, a loosening of nuclear rhetoric, an erosion of arms control frameworks that have been around for decades, a growing divide between the disarmament community and the deterrence communities, and a lack of understanding, both with the public and at elite levels, about all of these issues. This is a perfect storm of nuclear dynamics.”

Professor Futter added: “But, this doesn’t mean that heightened nuclear tension is not irreversible. Neither does it mean that something terrible will happen tomorrow. But nuclear weapons have returned to the forefront of global politics for the first time since at least the early-1980s.”

Approaching his 41st birthday, Professor Futter is part of a generation that put nuclear war to the back of its collective mind – but is now coming to terms with a new way of thinking.

He said: “There’s a big generational shift of people in their 50s and 60s who lived through nuclear war scares of the 1980s, and my generation and younger, who grew up in the 1990s and 2000s, who have never had to deal with this. We were worried about terrorism, climate change, and more recently communicable diseases such as COVID, but basically forgot about nuclear weapons. That was until the Ukraine war, and the rhetoric around it, brought the threat of nuclear weapons to the forefront of everyone’s minds.”

East-West tensions escalated in November, when outgoing US President, Joe Biden, granted Ukraine the ability to strike into Russian territory with American weapons, sparking anger in Moscow.

It now remains to be seen whether hostilities will intensify, or cool off, when incoming US President, Donald Trump, takes up office in January. Professor Futter is hopeful of the latter playing out.

“There is a mad man persona that former US president Nixon employed where he made himself look like he could do something quite drastic, which then acted as a deterrent to the other side,” he said. “This is something Trump may use to his advantage.

“The interesting thing with Trump is, while his rhetoric has raised the stakes, on the flip side, some experts suggest he hates nuclear weapons and what they can do. I also think Trump is the sort of person who wants to try and find a way of making a deal on arms control with Russia, probably linked to Ukraine. So, we might end up with, and I hope this is what happens, a scenario which looks a whole lot more positive than it is at present. I’m not saying that will happen, but there is evidence that Trump’s appointment isn’t as catastrophic for nuclear risks as some have suggested.

“The implications for the UK and Europe’s security are more complicated, with fears that the US will begin to detach itself from European security that will pose some big questions for governments in this part of the world.”

Devoting his professional life to examining nuclear threat means Professor Futter is conscious of the effect world events can have on his personal outlook.

“I’ve spent quite a long period of my life raising awareness of this issue,” he said. “That probably makes me feel better, in that at least I am working to try and help raise awareness and help decision makers if I can. Although, of course, I am fully aware I don’t have any power, individually, reverse current trends. But I am hope I can be a small part of a solution.

“Things are going in the wrong direction, but none of this is automatic, a nuclear disaster doesn’t have to happen. Decisions can be made to reverse from where we are. My worry is that, if we don’t treat the threat seriously, our nuclear world becomes increasingly more dangerous. So, helping to raise awareness, via such the Nobel Peace Prize Forum, is vital.”

He added: “Part of my message at the forum will be: only by being honest and engaging with what’s happening in the world, can you hope to come up with ideas to reduce the threats posed by nuclear weapons.”

“The nuclear issue isn’t one you can just ignore and hope it goes away. It might look really difficult and it can be tempting for people to think all is okay because nuclear weapons haven’t been used in war for such a long time. But, you just can’t think like that. It may not be very pleasant, but this is something we have to engage with if we want to make sure we get it right.”

Professor Futter will appear at the Nobel Peace Prize Forum, in Oslo, Norway, on Wednesday 11 December. The live streaming of the two sessions he is hosting will be viewable on the Nobel website between 9am and 11am, GMT.